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Discussion Starter #21
Uh oh, looks like my video above caught the corona. :surprise:

If you weren't able to see that video he was, basically, explaining that our government is showing a chart of expectation where the line of infected never peaks above the base line. Then he compares that to what it would probably be like if we lifted the bans on store/airline/restaurant closings and how that line would go straight up and over the base line - but for a shorter period of time.

Then he shows what could happen that the government is NOT showing us, which is the time frame AFTER the government's graph that shows a peak and then a drop in infected. And he's saying that the infected could jump WAY up again.

I'm probably making no sense whereas if you saw it you'd get a better understanding.


Try this one:


 

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^ Actually I was referring to the video I posted on post #12. But I'm glad you put that video up. I started watching it this morning. I only had time to watch about 10 minutes, I was liking what he was saying which is rare for me these days on the corona front. I cant vouch for anything he may have said after the first 10 minutes until I see it all. I had to go try to make some Ninja bucks while I still have a chance. Don't know when or if the Feds or state is going to put me on lock down. Then it's no more Ninja bucks for me.
 

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**** is hitting the fan here in NY. I went to Sam's club yesterday just to stock us up a bit on food. I'm by no means hoarding anything, I haven't even purchased any TP since this whole thing has started. I hate shopping, so when I do go I stock us up so I don't have to go back to the store any time soon, lol. There was literally no meat. No ground beef, no chicken, no turkey. Some sea food, but that was about it. A few packages of bacon remained on the shelf. No disinfecting products to speak of either. I didn't touch the cart handle without a clorox wipe in my hand. Same thing with the scanner at the self checkout. But don't I see on the news this morning someone was in the same Sam's club 5 days before me who tested positive for the virus! C'mon! I'm a germaphobe as it is. That was like the only time I left the house in a whole week. I highly doubt I have any chance of coming down with the virus. I literally wiped down everything I bought with a clorox wipe before it went in my house. I'll still likely stress about it for the next two weeks though. Ugh.
 

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Here is yet another thing I’m not understanding. After a brief bit of research I found there are 5 different Corona Viruses that can infect humans. There are more, but just 5 that can infect humans.

Amid this world wide panic about a pandemic, no one has yet addressed the possibility that there is more than one of them affecting different populations. If there were 3 different virus strains affecting three different populations, the possibility exists that there will not be a single vaccine for all.

Also, after a further brief bit of research, the Center for Disease Control website states that there have been an estimated 23K to 59K deaths from the flu since 1 October last year. Just in the US. IOW, many more than from COVID-19.

There was no panic over that statistic anywhere in the world. So why the hysteria over COVID-19? If you look at the statistics from around the world, even the infection stats don’t begin to approach the flu statistics. On the very same page where I found the fatality information it states there have been an estimated 38M to 54M cases of the flu in the US alone.

By comparison, there have been nearly 250K cases of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the entire world. I hate to state the obvious, but what the hell are we panicking over COVID-19 for?

Then there’s the whole lack of testing here. We see a high number of cases in Italy, but we have not run nearly the number of tests on the population in the US. Not even close. The US has just 14.5K confirmed cases or .00036% of the average number of flu cases. My guess is our numbers are artificially low because of the lack of testing.
I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. The current numbers worldwide are actually quite low. That may likely be from actions taken by various nations to contain it.

The reasons for the concern as I understand it, is that because it's a new strain we have not developed natural antibodies to fight it, it's highly infectious and the percentage of severe illness and death seems to be considerably higher than with other flu viruses. Italy went into lockdown almost two weeks ago and the effects are still growing, overwhelming their medical facilities.

The biggest problem, though, might be the lack of knowledge about it. As medical researchers try to get an accurate profile on this thing, verified information has not been abundant, so the media has jumped in and spread a lot of hysteria. That's where the TP hoarding comes in, because news reports were saying that there be a massive shortage of toilet paper.

It's always a wonder to me, how we react to stressful situations. There is definitely a need to contain this virus, best we can, but panic never makes anything better. I doubt those people feel any more secure by staring at that mountain of toilet paper sitting in their garages. I also don't imagine they feel any guilt at making a difficult time even more difficult for others.
 

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Discussion Starter #25
I'd like to continue to think methodically about all of this and I still can't wrap my brain around it. I understand all of the concern for major overload in the hospitals but at this time it's becoming more of a "Sophie's Choice" type. In other words, are we willing to allow our entire economy to tank - and I mean literally crumble! - for the sake of a virus that may or may not have the potential for mass deaths?

Going through the current data is almost useless because the numbers change by the minute and as soon as you make prognosis there is absolutely NO WAY to back up any claims! The numbers change again and TIME is the biggest curve breaker.

Unfortunately, I think we need to open everything up and prepare the best we can for the worst. People are losing their livelihoods, their life savings, etc. Literally, as one day goes by without people working/business producing/people getting paid 1,000's are losing everything!

So far, down south in Florida, the weather has been in the mid-80's every day (expecting 90's already for this week!). It hasn't rained in a day and forever and the reported cases are nowhere near, say, New York's...where the weather is cold and millions of people are packed together tightly during a typical cold/flu/allergy season.

Again, I'm no professional. But, so far, even the professionals have been way off base in more occasions than not.

Thoughts?
 

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Ladies and gentlemen I can't even begin to tell you how glad I am to see members here showing some common sense and sanity.
 

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I mean literally crumble! - for the sake of a virus that may or may not have the potential for mass deaths?

Going through the current data is almost useless because the numbers change by the minute and as soon as you make prognosis there is absolutely NO WAY to back up any claims! The numbers change again and TIME is the biggest curve breaker.

Unfortunately, I think we need to open everything up and prepare the best we can for the worst. People are losing their livelihoods, their life savings, etc. Literally, as one day goes by without people working/business producing/people getting paid 1,000's are losing everything!

So far, down south in Florida, the weather has been in the mid-80's every day (expecting 90's already for this week!). It hasn't rained in a day and forever and the reported cases are nowhere near, say, New York's...where the weather is cold and millions of people are packed together tightly during a typical cold/flu/allergy season.

Again, I'm no professional. But, so far, even the professionals have been way off base in more occasions than not.

Thoughts?
Well deaths are not the only concern, as you point out.. Economic concern. Covid-19 even if its not exceptionally deadly, the quarantine rules, the ease of transmission and a possible trip to the ER requiring advanced life support makes it an economic wrecking ball.

Covid 19 has not even infected a fraction of a percent of the words population and its caused around a trillion dollars worth of damage in the world and I think thats a reasonable estimate. What IF Covid went bat ****. (pun intended) and infected say 70% of the continental US and the death rate was close to Italy's mortality rate.

The action threshold for this virus wasnt set low enough. US intelligence and what should have been an alert bio-security team or AMRIID, should have seen the potential for economic disruption. The economic threshold was already being triggered as US tech business in china as it was being disrupted. Basic pest management practices really. But hey if you cant sell it to the commander in chief or they ignore your warnings.

LOL.. :nerd:

Um did I mention that I got a PAIR delete for my ninja?.. Im gonna go install that.. Its so hard to get away from the virus talk these days.
 

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I posted this over on the other site yesterday.


In my case I'm getting worried, even a little frightened.
I've shut myself off from the outside world for over a week.


I have an underlying chest condition (COPD) as well as having to take several drugs each day for my ticker. Speaking to the doctor (by phone of course), he informed me (when pushed) that contracting the virous could be...quote..."quite serious". When pushed further he agreed that contracting it could...quote..." prove to be more than my body would possibly cope with at the present time ". If I show any symptoms, I must seek medical help as soon as possible.
So isolation (for me) is a must.


Knowing that I would have to be isolated (possibly for months), and knowing that I am at high risk should I contract CV19 I've decided I need to get my house in order....just to be on the safe side.
To this end, I've double checked my life insurance (and confirmed it would cover me fully),and I've made an up to date will.


Now, all this may seem to be going a little (or a lot) over the top, but, there is a very good chance that I WILL end up contracting CV19, and the reason for that is....my wife is a nurse and they have already had 2 cases of the virous at the hospital where she works.


The outlook doesnt look to great at the moment, but, It's not going to get me down (as much as I can let it) and to that end, ( and the fact I'm going to have a lot of time on my hands) on the off chance that I will get to a stage where I will be able to ride again before the end of summer, I intend to have the bikes the cleanest they have ever been....along with several other job's I've been putting off for a while.


One thing I WILL say, is I'm bloody annoyed at the people who are not taking the situation serously, those who are still going out and mixing with others. Do they not ralise that they are helping to speed the way the virous is spreading,? Do they not understand the consequaenses of their action's,?
There are I would imagine hundreds of thousands of people...if not more...who's health these selfish idiots are putting at risk......at least th government have now done something about it.


As for the shopping situation.....all I can say is that it's a complete farce. I cannot believe how people can be so selfish and self centered as to empty arms full of items into their trolleys leaving bugger all for anybody else......I've watched the vid posted by the nurse, crying because she can't get any food, it's bloody disgusting what people are up to. At least the supermarkets are now stopping bulk buying, and some are opening at sepcific times just for the staff who we will need to keep the country running....get's a big thumbs up from me.


Right well, I've said what the situation is with me, and had a rant about the way some people are treating this.


Stay safe everybody,
Jonh
 

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I re print that may help explain why Covid-19 does what it does


Thank you, Leon Kirby from Johns Hopkins University

Here is a little more information on the virus that may help explain a few things that people don’t understand. This is from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University. Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot. Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery” This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it. And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.. That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not respectful of other's lives or smart right now. Everyone should act like they are carrying the virus. You can carry the virus and have no symptoms!
#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this with those that just are not catching on.

FOG
 
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